Is Consumer Rejection of EVs behind the Lithium Crash?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Lithium prices are down lately, and EV manufacturers, the major users of Lithium, have recently announced substantial cuts to production. So why are Lithium miners so optimistic?

Electric Vehicles Are Stuck In A Lull. What That Means For Tesla, Other EV Stocks And EV Battery Manufacturing.

APARNA NARAYANAN

12:38 PM ET 12/18/2023

The transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles was never going to be easy. But the gradual arrival of battery-powered cars drove sprawling plans to make EVs and EV batteries in the U.S., with companies like Tesla (TSLA), Ford Motor (F) and General Motors (GM) leading the charge.

Federal funding combined with geopolitical and climate concerns to expand the promise of industry growth for EV stocks and the so-called battery belt taking shape across the U.S. and beyond. The hope was to strengthen the Achilles’ heel of the nation’s electric vehicles boom: its reliance on batteries and critical minerals from abroad, especially China.

But consumer enthusiasm for electric cars has recently lost some of its charge, with Tesla, Ford, GM and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) among those turning cautious and scaling back, among other things, their battery manufacturing plans. Now analysts and executives are reading the data and the tea leaves, trying to determine whether the vibrant outlook for EVs and battery manufacturing is paused, broken or evolving into something new entirely.

…

“Automakers are losing tens of thousands of dollars for each electric vehicle sold,” said CFRA equity analyst Garrett Nelson. “Something had to give, and it has given.”

…
Read more: https://www.investors.com/news/electric-vehicles-market-loses-charge-what-means-ev-stocks-tesla-ev-battery-buildup/

A cut in EV production is a big deal for Lithium miners, according to the IEA in 2022 around 60% of Lithium production was used for EV batteries.

But Lithium miners are still projecting optimism;

Lithium prices crashed in 2023, but these figures show white gold is still the market’s biggest bet

Lithium prices have tumbled in 2023, but new data shows the money men continue to bet on the battery metal

BDO’s Sherif Andrawes says financiers and punters are looking at long term demand for lithium by backing equity and debt raisings in the metal ahead of traditional stayers like gold

Weak IPO market and falling cash balances should see even more lithium and gold M&A in 2024

As gold prices picked up steam and lithium prices began to crash, the flow of money into ASX explorers ran the opposite direction in a sign investors continue to view lithium as the commodity of the future.

Oversupply in China and the consequences of a small, volatile market have seen spodumene concentrate prices fall to a little over US$1000/t, just 12 months after rising to upwards of US$8000/t in an unprecedented bull run.

Chemical prices have fallen from around US$80,000/t to a little over US$15,000/t in the same time.

The fall has revived memories of the bear market from 2018 to early 2020, when against many industry projections, but inline with the warnings of some investment banks like Morgan Stanley, spodumene prices fell to around US$500/t and only the strong survived.

…

BDO’s head of global natural resources Sherif Andrawes said investors continued to punt on a massive uptick in electric vehicle demand going forward.

“There is a long term view that even despite the short term prices coming down and a lot of volatility in the lithium price, the long term demand for lithium will be there,” he told Stockhead.

…
Read more: https://stockhead.com.au/resources/lithium-prices-crashed-in-2023-but-these-figures-show-white-gold-is-still-the-markets-biggest-bet/?amp

Why are Lithium miners so optimistic?

It might be because they think politicians are still in their corner.

But the politicians have been slow to inflict promised EV mandates on voters, in what promises to be a difficult election cycle for Net Zero aligned politicians – so slow that EV manufacturers are starting to complain.

Ford UK says any delay on government petrol car ban risks EV transition

Reuters

September 20, 20239:30 PM GMT+10 Updated 3 days ago

…

Ford said dropping the [British] 2030 deadline would be a mistake, and hinted it could put further investments at risk.

“The UK 2030 target is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future,” Ford UK chair Lisa Brankin said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.”

…
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-uk-slams-potential-relaxation-plans-ban-new-petrol-diesel-car-sales-by-2030-2023-09-20/

What can we make of all this?

For starters I don’t think Lithium is going away forever. Even if current generation EVs turn out to be a bust, as seems increasingly likely, there really is no substitute for Lithium when it comes to batteries. The nearest relative to Lithium (atomic weight 7) is Sodium (atomic weight 23). But Sodium on an atom for atom basis is 23 / 7 = 3x heavier than Lithium. So in any application where weight is important, Sodium has a huge disadvantage compared to Lithium.

Having said this there are alternatives to batteries, which might one day supplant Lithium batteries – so there is no absolute guarantee Lithium batteries are the future.

For vehicles, the distress of EV manufacturers is creating an opportunity for hydrogen and ammonia fuel proponents. Even laptops may one day be powered by fuel cells rather than batteries. And there is the ever present possibility of a supercapacitor nanotech breakthrough which could upset everyone’s apple cart.

Frankly I find the green alternatives to EVs scarier than EVs. When an EV catches fire you usually have a chance to get out, a few seconds between smoke and deadly fire. But ammonia can kill you on contact, it chemically attacks and burns any flesh it touches. And hydrogen is horrifyingly explosive and flammable – as residents of Bakersfield discovered in July this year.

As for supercapacitors – anyone who has seen an old style TV fail with a bang has witnessed a small scale capacitor dielectric failure. Imagine that scaled up million times, and you get the idea of why I’m going to let someone else drive the first supercapacitor EVs.

Given I think “green” alternatives to EVs are even worse, am I saying EVs are the future?

The answer, for now at least, is no.

Consumers are clearly voting with their wallets, rejecting EVs, leaving them on the dealer lots. And politicians are caving in to demands from voters to extend the deadline for phasing out gasoline vehicles.

Barring an unexpected range, price and reliability breakthrough, I can’t help thinking the Lithium bulls could be in for a long wait, to realise a return on their investments.

Update (EW): Added a quote from the first article “Automakers are losing tens of thousands of dollars for each electric vehicle sold…”

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Tom Halla

December 23, 2023 10:08 am

Betting on politicians staying in office, or staying with a policy, is a sucker bet.

Wester

Reply to Tom Halla

December 23, 2023 12:22 pm

I think betting on a US senator sticking around for a while – even decades – would be a pretty safe bet.

pillageidiot

Reply to Tom Halla

December 23, 2023 12:48 pm

You should buy a Biden.

When they are bought, they stay bought for decades!

bnice2000

Reply to pillageidiot

December 23, 2023 5:32 pm

so long as you keep buying them .. and/or keep the receipts

Bryan A

Reply to bnice2000

December 24, 2023 10:31 am

If I skip a payment can I have my Biden REPOSESSED?

Curious George

December 23, 2023 10:10 am

Governments are pushing immature technology down out throats.

Leo Smith

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 10:27 am

Simeone is paying them for that.

Its not just immature: That implies that it will work eventually. The whole model of EVs is not a satisfactory replacement for fuel cars and trucks, not now, not ever.

Scissor

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 11:36 am

Sometimes in your arm.

mariojlento

Reply to Scissor

December 23, 2023 12:44 pm

yes, like mRNA

mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 10:11 am

I keep saying this …. the low hanging fruit for EV buyers is done. Are supercapacitors still a thing? Whatever happened to that company claiming they were just days away from proof of concept and even taking reporters through a phony production line?

Erik Magnuson

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 10:39 am

I think you are referring to EEStor, which was touting high-k ceramics for their supercapacitor, which obviously didn’t pan out. There is slow progress made on regular supercapacitors as they have been in production for more than a decade, but specific energy is too low for EV’s. They may be useful for providing virtual inertial for the grid. due to their very high specific power (please note distinction between power and energy).

Bryan A

Reply to Erik Magnuson

December 23, 2023 10:58 am

EEStor…
Nearly a perfect anagram for
Steorn
Just one letter different

Rud Istvan

Reply to Erik Magnuson

December 23, 2023 11:28 am

They already do that in units sized up to about 4MW. Beyond that it is cheaper to use a big synchronized condenser.

Peta of Newark

Reply to Rud Istvan

December 23, 2023 12:35 pm

That’s garbage.
Conventional capacitors (Leyden Jars) do not and can not provide grid inertia.
Every solid state grid-tied inverter (as per roof-top solar) is chock full of said capacitors yet it is they that actually cause the requirement for synchronous capacitors..

Ordinary capacitors are connected across power lines and you’ll see them as oversized baked-bean cans at the tops of poles.

What they are doing is VAR correction. (Volts Amps Reactive)
They were/are required because most loads that folks connect to the grid contain coils of wire and lumps of (laminated) Iron
e.g. All synchronous electric motors, transformers in vast amounts of consumer electronics and the ballasts in fluorescent tubes of all shapes sizes (street-lights included)

A lot of those are gone but increasing numbers of motors are being added to the grid (air-cons, heat pumps and refrigeration)

As we all know, these are ‘reactive’ loads in that the current flowing in them is not in phase with the voltage.
Maybe you’ve come across “cos phi” as seen on labels of electrical equipment

Defined as: The ratio of real power to apparent power is the power factor or cosine phi (cosΦ).

Φ is the number of degrees by which (for a motor or inductance) the current lags behind the voltage

For power generators and utilities it is a real PITA to create these sorts of reactive powers and amps and to move them around.
Plus: A big solid alternator likes it amps and volts to be exactly in phase with each other all the time

Enter: The Capacitor (non super)
As you all know, capacitors are also reactive components but the great thing about them is that the amps through a capacitor go in front of the voltage
So where an inductor or motor will have negative cosΦ, (current lags the volts) capacitors have positive cosΦ (current leads the volts)

Sharp eyed utility operators/workers will be aware of places on their network where there are especially lots of motors attached to their grid (persistent negative cosΦ) and so, easy peasy lemon squeezy, they bolt some capacitance to their lines.

This adds positive cosΦ and with a modicum of luck, the two cancel out and everybody is happy

Peta of Newark

Reply to Peta of Newark

December 23, 2023 12:43 pm

They can make them any old size they like but as we all also know, capacitors of most shapes and sizes are able to dump their contents in vanishly small intervals of time

That means that should *anything* go wrong, esp internal to the capacitor and it dumps its load into itself, you have *very* powerful bomb on your hands

hence the 4MW limit – keeping taking windows out over a 5 mile radius gets tedious and expensive.
Even before the windows’ owners get a bit ‘dis-chuffed’

4MW limits the damage to about a kilometre when they blow

-3

Rud Istvan

Reply to Peta of Newark

December 23, 2023 1:14 pm

PETA, we are speaking of supercapacitors, aka electrolytic double layer capacitors, something where I have basic issues patenets and invested several million to get to market.
The physics is that of the Helmholtz double layer—same physics as lightning. If I knew how to reach you I would send a picture of a working 4MW grid inertia unit operating in Japan on the feed to a large semiconductor plant. The time from full charge to full discharge is on the order of 1 second. Make the supercap bank big enough and voila, grid inertia. Cost is the reason they don’t come bigger. Above about 4 MW, a large synchronous condenser is cheaper.

Richard Greene

Reply to Rud Istvan

December 23, 2023 2:47 pm

Super capacitors have been tried in experimental EVs here in Michigan as a way to temporarily boost EV acceleration while using a smaller, cheaper basic electric motor.

The horsepower boost was brief and not a good trade off for using a smaller, cheaper electric motor and smaller, cheaper battery pack.

KevinM

Reply to Peta of Newark

December 23, 2023 8:14 pm

Great exposition(s) of technical knowledge that did not really address the thesis(es).

Richard Greene

Reply to Peta of Newark

December 23, 2023 2:40 pm

One of those oversized baked-bean cans at the tops of poles exploded behind our home with a noise so loud last Summer my wife almost fainted. I told her we were going to be without electricity for longer than the usual day or two. Two days later four DTE Energy workmen showed up and our electricity was on in 20 minutes. How could damage from such an incredible explosion be repaired in only 20 minutes with one guy climbing up the telephone pole with a ladder?.

Curious George

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 4:03 pm

Can’t tell unless you tell me what has happened. An “oversized baked bean can” is not a technical description.

Richard Greene

Reply to Curious George

December 24, 2023 2:54 am

Large baked bean can = large cylinder on an electric pole, a transformer used to convert the electricity to a lower level needed in your home or business. This is usually around 240 volts.

Iain Reid

Reply to Rud Istvan

December 24, 2023 12:23 am

Rud,

I think inertia as used by electrical power grids is largely misunderstood.

It is a damper for frequency variation using kinetic energy from large rotating turbo alternators or similar and is continually occurring. How can that be artifically supplied?

Also, it does not end there, as I said it is a damper and if the load continues to deviate from the input power conventional generators alter input power to match. This is the way frequency is met, not just simple inertia. It is similar to the flywheel on an internal combustion engine, but if the fuel input does not match the load the engine speed will alter. Speed in a grid system must be kept to very tight limits.

Even then there can be significant events that require additional input, usually from storage due to their quick reaction time, this is why pumped storage was added to grids long before any renewables.

John XB

Reply to Iain Reid

December 24, 2023 5:48 am

Which is why fossil fuel generators are needed continually running to keep the grid stable as more and more wind and solar is added.

The net result is not changeover from fossil fuel to wind/solar, but two systems working in parallel – and CO2 emissions negligible, or even increased – and sky high electricity prices.

Genius.

Scissor

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 11:38 am

Went bankrupt, screwed investors and customers. Reborn and rebranded, rinse and repeat.

Curious George

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 12:06 pm

Do we know of anybody working on an alcohol-powered fuel cell?

Peta of Newark

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 12:09 pm

We’ve all got one already – a liver.

Rud Istvan

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 1:16 pm

Methanol fuel cells exist in the lab. Problem is they are not very efficient and need expensive catalysts.

Richard Greene

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 2:48 pm

I know an alcohol powered engineer.

Scissor

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 3:53 pm

My clock runs on coffee.

pillageidiot

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 12:52 pm

I am almost ready to start production of my automobile line powered by desktop fusion! We will literally blow the doors off of all of the competition.

If you want in on the ground floor, then please send money to #suckerborneveryminutecarcompany.

Richard Greene

Reply to pillageidiot

December 23, 2023 2:50 pm

I’ll trade you my 25% ownership of the Brooklyn Bridge for shares in your company.

John Hultquist

December 23, 2023 10:40 am

“But consumer enthusiasm for electric cars has recently lost some of its charge”

The idea of “charge” in this case is much like a battery in that what is therein is limited. Unlike, say the water cycle that produces continually flowing rivers. Folks with money and an “early adopter” attitude discharged the demand for EVs.
The demand for autos continues, just not for 2nd cars that cost 3X that of a standard car and are not suitable for most people because of geography or type of residential accommodations.

Bryan A

Reply to John Hultquist

December 23, 2023 11:12 am

Not only that but the price difference between EV and ICE is sufficient to pay for an automotive lifetime of gasoline. Just compare the Tesla X to say a Dodge Durango
Granted their price has dropped from…
Tesla X 2022 $120,990 to 2023 $79,990 (-$41,000)
Durango 2023 starts at $38,495 for the base SXT model
The price difference $41,495 will buy 10,000 gallons of gas at an average of 20MPG (19 city 26 hwy) will go 200,000 miles with 2 tire changes
The Tesla, from its battery weight, will require retiring about 10 times, every 20,000 miles or so

How will the X be doing after 200,000 miles?

Scissor

Reply to Bryan A

December 23, 2023 11:41 am

It will be doing fine, most of its plastic lying in a landfill somewhere.

Giving_Cat

December 23, 2023 10:52 am

Very recent discoveries of major previously unsuspected deposits across the globe have upset long term projections.

The demand for battery storage will continue. That for now includes lithium.

Rud Istvan

Reply to Giving_Cat

December 23, 2023 11:31 am

Northern Quebec has a large spodumene discovery, and the Salton Sea has a large brine discovery.

Curious George

Reply to Giving_Cat

December 23, 2023 12:11 pm

Lithium batteries are light, but that’s not a requirement for storage batteries.

Eric Worrall

Author

Reply to Curious George

December 23, 2023 12:32 pm

Absolutely. It’s possible politicians will mess up the grid so much everyone will want a backup battery. But that battery does not have to be lithium – there’s a real possibility sodium will become the base metal of choice for stationary applications where weight doesn’t matter.

Rud Istvan

Reply to Eric Worrall

December 23, 2023 1:21 pm

I am working with a Finnish group on a novel grid storage system based very cheaply on salt water, based on technology out of MIT. The storage mechanism is the two valent states of chlorine, not sodium. Very clever use of carbontetrachloride to isolate the chlorine.

Drake

Reply to Eric Worrall

December 23, 2023 1:26 pm

Or the Edison battery I learned about on WUWT.

Large (heavy) and not as fast to charge and discharge BUT they last FOREVER.

Not manufactured anymore in the US.

30 year life between refreshing the electrolyte. Then they will go another 30 years.

Makes you wonder why no one is using them.

DMacKenzie

December 23, 2023 11:10 am

Miners are “price takers”. They see the green push for EV’s….see that the world will need 10x lithium production to meet projected demand. You can play the odds and decide if your poker hand is a winner….that’s what they are doing….if the Casino is on fire, it’s a whole different story.

Rud Istvan

December 23, 2023 11:14 am

I hold basic patents on the world’s best supercapacitor nanocarbons. 1.4x energy density, 2x power density of conventional activated carbons. Still not good enough to replace batteries.
The only two conceptually better supercap materials are carbon nanotubes and graphenes.
Nanotubes have a very high modulus of elasticity (very stiff) so if just jumbled no volumetric energy density. Solve that problem by growing them vertically (done in Japan and at MIT) two of the three chiralities are nonconducting so no gravimetric energy density.
Graphenes are easy to make but they clump from VanDerWaal forces so low energy density as only the ‘outside’ of the clump is useful.

EESTOR claimed high energy density ceramic caps was a stock fraud that went on for years. Wrote it up as an example in ebook The Arts of Truth.

Kit P

Reply to Rud Istvan

December 23, 2023 2:45 pm

Congrats on being an idiot with lots of patents. I am a smart guy who knows about making electricity. Storing large amounts is stupid and dangerous.

-10

Curious George

Reply to Kit P

December 24, 2023 10:30 am

It seems very easy to discover a Democrat.

Ronald Stein

December 23, 2023 11:14 am

Is the automobile industry being mandated toward a Death Spiral?
The passion for electric vehicles to help achieve lower emissions in wealthy countries seems to be oblivious to the potentially insurmountable and uncontrollable challenges facing the automobile industry.

Zero emissions at ANY COST seems to be the direction being mandated by governments and the Environmental, Social and Governance movements around the world, to divest in fossil fuels.

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/is-the-automobile-industry-being-mandated-toward-a-death-spiral

Scissor

Reply to Ronald Stein

December 23, 2023 11:46 am

Patrick Henry said, “Give me liberty or give me death” and today leftists are giving everyone death spirals all around.

antigtiff

December 23, 2023 11:36 am

Butt but but…Elon sez lithium is the new oil….his Muskmobiles require lots of lithium and thus lithium mining….and cobalt mining….and a much bigger grid….get to work on the new electric world…it will shock you.

HotScot

December 23, 2023 12:02 pm

Investors will soon cotton on to all the wild promises made by battery makers about extending ranges and reducing charging times.

A small battery manufacturer with its factory in Scotland has just gone bust, squealing it had reduced charging times for an EV to 6 minutes. It would have cost Elon Musk some pocket change to buy it and turn Tesla mainstream. He didn’t because the claim is more bullshit.

In the UK we have Tesla owners, particularly, celebrating their success of driving 600 miles using the Tesla supercharging network which makes it easy and cheap. The problem is Tesla has sold its charging network and with no cars to sell for profit the new owner has no motivation to keep its electricity cheap.

600 miles in the US is almost a commute and running electricity supplies to remote locations will cost an awful lot of money, so ‘cheap electricity’ isn’t an option.

We here know that whilst, in the UK at least, EV’s will be mandated from 2035 onwards, as will Heat Pumps for new homes and replacement heating systems, supplies of electricity will dwindle as more wind and solar are built and fossil fuels phased out. We here have seen the mathematics on all this, but try explaining to EVangelists and they turn into a stone wall.

Whilst supermarket charging facilities lie unused and often removed here, they are still being installed, clearly compelled by governments to do so. They are usually few, and tucked away in the most inaccessible parts of the available parking, and they are still largely unused.

So now the UK government have turned to punishment as coercion to drive through EV’s. Car manufacturers will now be forced to pay a £15,000 penalty for every ICE car sold over a specific quota. Heat pumps are the same although the penalty is somewhat lower. Guess who pays for all this? The manufacturers shareholders? Of course not, it will be the suckers known as consumers.

We might take some encouragement from wind businesses in the US and the UK refusing to bid for new contracts because the profits just aren’t there. But fear not, following the last auction round for contracts in the UK, which attracted not a single bidder, our government simply folded and raised the Contracts for Difference (CfD) threshold substantially for the next auction. And guess who pays for that? Yep, we consumers, who have seen our energy bills treble in the last four years or so. Mine has risen from £80 per month for combined Gas and Electricity to £250 per month.

2024 is a big year. Trump may well be elected, whilst our Conservative government (Tories) may go down to it’s most humiliating defeat ever to our socialist Labour party (same as US Democrats). The fly in the ointment might be Nigel Farage (a conservative but not a Tory) who could well spring a big surprise and wreck the ambitions of the Labour party for a landslide. But Nigel hasn’t yet declared his intention to contest the election. Personally, I think he’s keeping his powder dry for the moment.

There are stirrings of discontent in Germany with their green/socialist coalition government and, like Trump, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) a right wing party is growing in popularity to the extent that the establishment are attempting to outlaw them. If and when Russia are victorious in Ukraine, which will become evident in 2024, the German public are likely to revolt and kick out their left wing government.

The revolt against the climate and NetZero nonsense never was going to come from the scientific community. It always was going to come down to a political punch up, and I think that’s in 2024.

mleskovarsocalrrcom

Reply to HotScot

December 23, 2023 1:40 pm

“The revolt against the climate and NetZero nonsense never was going to come from the scientific community.” I remember over a decade ago when the purists on WUWT would argue that the way to overcome the AGW scam was to use science to convince the warmists they were wrong. You can’t use logic when emotion is involved.

Rud Istvan

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 23, 2023 2:27 pm

And when their careers are involved.

HotScot

Reply to mleskovarsocalrrcom

December 24, 2023 7:27 am

And I was saying over a decade ago that decent scientific inquiry will not change anything. I may even have written an article on it.

The fact is 90% of the world haven’t the first clue about science so the left used propaganda, as usual, which everyone understands. At best, science was only ever going to convert 10% of the worlds population – who understand science.

A big change is happening though, thanks to all those indoctrinated children and university students who are now in their 20’s and 30’s and, like you and I did, are rebelling against the orthodoxy. It’s not very obvious yet but it is happening.

Streetcred

Reply to HotScot

December 23, 2023 6:58 pm

“600 miles in the US is almost a commute … ” Here in Oz that is going down to the corner shop to buy milk 🙂

Scissor

Reply to Streetcred

December 23, 2023 7:09 pm

Don’t forget to take your wallet when you leave home.

Ian_e

Reply to Streetcred

December 24, 2023 5:45 am

Does it come from kangaroos down under? (Asking for a friend.)

Ian_e

Reply to HotScot

December 24, 2023 5:43 am

Hmm, Farage, if he engages, will be a problem not for Labour (which would almost certainly benefit in seat terms) but for the so-called Conservatives since that is where nearly all potential Reform votes will originate. Strangely, however, that would be VERY good news for real conservatives, since total destruction of the green-lib-dem-lite Conservative Party is now the only chance to get a true conservative party going forward.

Dave Andrews

Reply to HotScot

December 24, 2023 6:08 am

In relation to heat pumps Worcester Bosch here in the UK has already said it will have to pass the cost of the fines on to customers by increasing the cost of all their products. Thanks government 🙂

Dave Andrews

Reply to Dave Andrews

December 24, 2023 6:09 am

Dang ‘increasing the price of all their products’

HotScot

Reply to Dave Andrews

December 24, 2023 6:36 am

As have all the rest of the boiler manufacturers. I think ranging from £90, to £120 in WB’s case.

Duane

December 23, 2023 12:10 pm

For all the talk of “falling EV sales”, you gotta look at the actual sales data which tells a very different story. According to Kelly Blue Book EV sales in the US in 3rd quarter are up 50% over same quarter 2022, with total EV sales just passing 1 million in November for the first time.

Where there have been negatively spun news stories, what was actually the case was that EV manufacturers slightly reduced the rate of acceleration in EV sales year over year. You do realize the difference between velocity and acceleration, right?

Also what KBB reports is no. of units sold. The revenue growth is significantly less than 50% year over year given that the average new car price for EVs has plunged in 2023 vs 2022. Tesla dropped their prices by 25% in 2023 to keep up sales volume as new lower cost EVs have entered the market. A total of 14 new EV models went on sale this year.

Of course high prices were always an ongoing criticism of EVs… but now they are high no longer. That is the thing about free markets – you get more competitors selling more units, and prices go down. Every time.

Samuel Clemons said it best about statistics: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Be very about passing on damned lies as if they were statistics.

-17

Eric Worrall

Author

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 12:44 pm

The lull in sales is upsetting automakers enough so automakers are scaling back.

I added a quote that they are losing 10s of thousands of dollars on each EV sale. Carrying a loss leading product only makes sense if you think the product has a bright future, and you are absorbing the loss to win market share. Given the poor sales and loss of confidence, sooner or later the remaining EVs will either have to be marked to market, which will put even more downward pressure on sales, or they’ll decide to absorb the loss and sell them for whatever they can get, while shuttering production of new EVs.

Richard Greene

Reply to Eric Worrall

December 23, 2023 2:59 pm

You can predict a decline in the EV market until the cows s come home but it did not happen in 2023. And that is a fact based on sales data.

-7

scvblwxq

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 6:11 pm

Sales of EVs aren’t increasing enough to keep the big production lines busy.

Richard Greene

Reply to scvblwxq

December 24, 2023 2:59 am

WRONG

Big Three sales of their EVs in 2-23 are not growing as fast as anticipated in 2022

Total EV sales in the US are booming in 2023

-4

Streetcred

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 7:04 pm

Short-term. The micro-markets, like Australia for example, 7.23% of 2023 new car sales will probably tank sooner rather than later as the reality of cost, refuelling and safety are better appreciated. So far it’s the low hanging virtuous fruits sucked in by the propaganda.

Richard Greene

Reply to Streetcred

December 24, 2023 3:00 am

But that did not happen in 2023 and the article claimed.

-3

Scissor

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 1:04 pm

Major car makers in particular are having trouble in the EV space with the shit really hitting the fan in just the past month. We’ll see where this goes, but VW, Ford and GM are significantly curtailing EV production because they can’t afford to continue loses of $10’s of thousands on each EV vehicle sold. But even the dominant Tesla is seeing a softening of demand for its vehicles.

Almost 4000 U.S. car dealers are calling for EV mandates to be scaled back. https://www.autonews.com/dealers/car-dealerships-call-joe-biden-slow-down-ev-push

https://electrek.co/2023/12/15/gm-stops-chevy-bolt-production-for-now-lays-off-1314-workers/

https://slaynews.com/news/audi-slashes-electric-vehicle-production-demand-plummets/

Richard Greene

Reply to Scissor

December 23, 2023 3:09 pm

WRONG

Ford cut Lightening production in half because 2023 sales were about 25% of planned 2024 production. They may have to cut 2024 Lightening production in half again.

The losses are from weak Big Three EV sales and a large up front investments in engineering and battery plant construction for 2025 and 2026 model EVs not yet being sold.

Michigan engineers working at Ford were pessimistic about EV sales in 2023 and they were right. , The last engineer I knew there retired a year ago thinking the company was doomed. And he had been working a on an EV program.

-11

Scissor

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 4:20 pm

I don’t see exactly what you think I said is wrong. You confirm what I said about major car companies having trouble and cutting production.

Even darling Tesla is seeing some weakness in sales, despite as Bryan A pointed out above, drastically reducing prices.

Not to pile on, but Consumer Reports even put out a recent report saying that EV quality in general is poor, and supposedly only 10 models will qualify for EV tax credits beginning on January 1. EV sales are surely facing some headwinds.

Richard Greene

Reply to Scissor

December 24, 2023 3:06 am

2023 EV sales arer booming in the US and globally despite the many disadvantages of EVs versus ICE’s.

There are no data available for December 2023 but a sudden collapse of EV sales a few weeks ago seems very unlikely.

I posted another comment with sales data for 2023 through 3Q.

There was no lull.
There was a boom

-6

Scissor

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 5:54 am

Boom is a subjective term. So is lull, I suppose, but to me a boom is being shocked, startled, unexpectedly surprised, felt by everyone. It’s not unsold EVs piling up in lots despite government mandates, subsidies, incentives and price cuts.

As others have pointed out, there can still be good relative growth but from low absolute sales volumes, and Tesla is more of an outlier than being representative of the EV market at large.

Let’s see how the year ends and then what happens next year. I tend to believe that there will be enough weakness for most to recognize a lull.

Bryan A

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 8:10 am

As PT Barnum is often attributed as saying, “There’s sucker born every minute”

Proverb. (US, slang) There’s a great number of fools in the world who can easily be swindled, and there always will be.

karlomonte

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 1:45 pm

Great, you go put your cash down for one.

John Hultquist

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 1:50 pm

Here is a 2nd 50% story.
GM just cancelled (bought out) half of the dealers that sell Buicks.
The dealerships would not agree to the $300,000+ cost of handling
sales and maintenance of EVs. It does mean more GM vehicles
will be sold directly; the Tesla model-of-sales.

A second point: Many statements regarding the gushing sales of EVs
suffer from two things: One being using percentages, the second being
the Base Rate Fallacy.
Note that much of the controversy about Covid shots and illness suffer
from the same two things.

Rud Istvan

Reply to John Hultquist

December 23, 2023 2:33 pm

The Buick story is even more interesting. GM has declared that by 2030 ALL Buicks will be EV. So about half the Buick dealers took the on average $1 million each to be bought out of the brand, rather than invest the $300-400 thousand to support a definitely smaller market for Buick EV’s. GM has spent almost a $billion on the Buick buyouts on top of the billions they have lost on EVs. Mary Barra not looking too good as CEO.

Trying to Play Nice

Reply to Rud Istvan

December 23, 2023 4:32 pm

Mary Barra bet the farm on EVs. Some in the industry have a feeling that GM may not be around much longer.

Scissor

Reply to Trying to Play Nice

December 24, 2023 5:56 am

I just looked her up, and I had expected her to be an Ivy Leaguer. MBA from Stanford.

Richard Greene

Reply to John Hultquist

December 24, 2023 3:13 am

Irrelevant.
Buick is in a decline generally and has too many dealers

Half refused the $300,000 reported in the Detroit Free Press investment demanded for EVs, mainly for fast EV chargers. They only sold 20% of all Buicks

They usually sell GMC trucks too

They made a smart business decision to avoid the $300,000.

Buick is a fading brand with a 1.2% market share

-3

Scissor

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 5:32 am

I found it funny that Buick was a popular brand in China. I think it’s been losing share the past few years but the company I worked for in Wuhan had a handful of Buick vans. Whenever more than a couple of us would go over, we would be chauffeured around in them.

John Hultquist

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 8:09 am

” buyouts, which have cost GM about $1 billion thus far“

That’s $1,000,000,000 – – – hardly an irrelevant amount.
The list price of a Silverado will have to go up!

Bryan A

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 8:17 am

It will be sad to see them go, it was sad to see Plymouth go though the ’72 Fury was a POS

Gunga Din

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 2:31 pm

“Of course high prices were always an ongoing criticism of EVs… but now they are high no longer. That is the thing about free markets – you get more competitors selling more units, and prices go down.”

Lower prices for EVs? How much of that is due to taxpayer subsidies to the buyer of the manufacturer?
Despite all that, why are people still not buying them? Why are car lots filling up with unsold EVs?
Answer: Despite the pressure and the tax breaks and the PR, people still don’t want them. They don’t fit their needs.

Trying to Play Nice

Reply to Gunga Din

December 23, 2023 4:36 pm

As some commenters pointed out, EV sales as a whole haven’t gone down. But since all manufacturers have to make EVs to meet government requirements, the number of new models is getting larger so the sales numbers on models can go down while the total market goes up. That increases costs and will force consolidation and/or bankruptcies. The smart automakers are still developing ICE vehicles for the future.

Richard Greene

Reply to Gunga Din

December 24, 2023 3:16 am

Even with the tax credit a Tesla 3 is much more expensive than a similar sized Toyota Corolla ICE.

Bryan A

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 8:23 am

Tesla 3 $38,990 (are they building the under $45,000 version yet?)
Toyota Corolla $21,900 ($17,000 less)

Drake

Reply to Bryan A

December 24, 2023 11:10 am

17K buys a LOT of gas, while paying the gas taxes.

The Tesla owner still needs a charger at home or to pay a bunch for electrons away from home. All while not contributing a penny toward road maintenance of improvements.

Scissor

Reply to Drake

December 24, 2023 11:27 am

The Corolla has excellent resale value retention and if taken care of will easily reach 200,000 miles or more.

Musk put a lot of recent Tesla buyers way underwater with his price cuts.

Bryan A

Reply to Gunga Din

December 24, 2023 8:18 am

They’re still 50%-100% higher than ICE equivalents

ethical voter

Reply to Duane

December 23, 2023 5:30 pm

Subsidies and and mandating do not make a free market except in your demented world.

Bryan A

Reply to Duane

December 24, 2023 8:03 am

When dealing with equivalents in size, capability and passenger capacity EVs are still overpriced compared to ICE equivalents.

Full size SUV
Tesla X $79,990 6-7 passenger
Dodge Durango $38,495 8 passenger ($41,000 less)

Impact sedan
Tesla 3 $38,990 (are they building the under $45,000 version yet?)
Toyota Corolla $21,900 ($17,000 less)

Tesla S $74,990
Nissan Maxims $38,340 ($36,500 less)

Tesla Y $43,990
Nissan Rogue $27,910 ($16,000 less)

They depreciate faster losing almost 50% of their value in 5 years (Tesla S P85 was $80,080 new…
How much is a 2013 Tesla S worth?
The value of a used 2013 Tesla Model S ranges from $9,274 to $20,072, based on vehicle condition, mileage, and options.

They use up tires faster needing replacement every 20,000 miles or so (from fuel tank weight…the fuel weighs nothing but the tank weighs 1100 lbs)

MarkW

Reply to Duane

December 24, 2023 10:28 am

Competition can’t lower prices when the cost of manufacturing remains high.

Drake

Reply to Duane

December 24, 2023 10:58 am

“Of course high prices were always an ongoing criticism of EVs… but now they are high no longer. That is the thing about free markets…”

Free markets my @ss. When the government provides for the transfer of 10 to 20 thousand dollars from the purchasers of ICE vehicles to the purchaser of a EV, along with CAFE standards that force ICE manufacturers to make smaller and smaller vehicles, and you require ICE fuel purchases to fund ALL road maintenance and improvements with NO cost to EV owners, then you are not talking about a free market.

But Duane, you have shown repeatedly that your leftist ideology approves of the grossly tilted playing field for not just EVs, but for bird choppers killing eagles and migratory birds and the environmental blight of millions of acres covered with solar panels.

What an @sshat!!

J Boles

December 23, 2023 12:29 pm

Politicians should be very limited in what they are allowed to meddle with.

Eric Worrall

Author

Reply to J Boles

December 23, 2023 12:48 pm

They have to be pruned back every so often. There are 438 (?) federal agencies which report to the President. How can anyone manage a sprawling mess on that scale? At the very least the President would have to delegate to underlings, even meeting the heads of each of those agencies once per year would be a huge impost on the President’s time.

Drake

Reply to Eric Worrall

December 24, 2023 11:14 am

And thus TRUMP!’s mistake. He thought he didn’t need to fill a bunch of appointive positions because he thought they were useless.

He missed that when he left all those departments under the control of lifetime federal employees, he left them in charge of activist liberals.

David Dibbell

December 23, 2023 1:04 pm

“But ammonia can kill you on contact, it chemically attacks and burns any flesh it touches.”

I worked for several years on a contract consulting basis for a rapidly expanding dairy processing plant. Large capacity ammonia refrigeration systems were involved. There was VERY serious attention to process safety design and to safe practices for maintenance and operation.

So yes, it would be a scary mistake to use ammonia as a vehicle fuel. Lethal through inhalation (damage to the lungs) in a very short time. Nope, not for me!

michael hart

Reply to David Dibbell

December 23, 2023 1:51 pm

Ammonia is most commonly encountered in the laboratory as a ~28% solution in water. Safe enough to sell in milk bottles. It’s probably my favourite chemical smell (but there’s no accounting for taste, is there?).

Toxicity is only acute, not cumulative.
If someone drops a large glass bottle on the lab floor then the windows need to opened and the the vicinity cleared without panic while it is mopped up. There is no need to exaggerate, much less head for the hills.

There would be no real need to store ammonia as a liquified gas for most energy-storage purposes when it is so easily stored safely as an aqueous solution which readily generates the gas upon heating.

-1

Trying to Play Nice

Reply to michael hart

December 23, 2023 4:37 pm

Storing it as a 28% solution would certainly add a lot of extra weight to the vehicle.

PCman999

Reply to michael hart

December 24, 2023 7:21 am

“Ammonia is most commonly encountered in the laboratory ”

You said it yourself: in the laboratory, where everyone has to have WMHIS and chemical handling training, and there’s dedicated staff to babysit the situation.

How is that going to work at the local gas station?

DMacKenzie

Reply to David Dibbell

December 24, 2023 12:21 pm

A good portion of my career involved designing industrial ammonia refrigeration systems and equipment. Ammonia is a good refrigerant. Its COP is good. The physical size of equipment is relatively small for its large heat transfer capacity. A small leak is readily detectable by its odor. You can depressure equipment for maintenance with a hose bubbling through a pail of water to absorb the vapor. In the event that the vapor catches fire, it produces more of a “woof” than an explosion. The LEL, lower explosive limit of ammonia in air is 15% compared to hydrocarbons at around 2%. The ammonia / air flame velocity is about 0.07 m/s compared with fundamental flame velocities of about 0.4 – 0.5 m/s for the majority of hydrocarbons; Its Minimum Ignition Energy is 680 MJ compared to .015 MJ for hydrogen, so static electricity sparks are not a source of combustion, nor glowing cigarettes, and actually trying to set ammonia vapor alight with a match is not very likely to result in success, although it can happen from welding arcs for example.

On the first exposure to a high concentration of ammonia vapor, inexperienced people may panic and drop to the floor, where unfortunately the concentration is likely higher, and the stinging caused by ammonia absorption by mucous membranes at high concentrations will induce complete panic in the inexperienced…while experienced industrial refrigeration mechanics will hold their breathe, squint their eyes and leave the area ASAP to find an air pack. This is, of course, a stressful situation compared to the peaceful death by asphyxiation one might experience with the same size of fluorocarbon refrigerant leak in the same size of enclosed space. So good ventilation in mechanical rooms and suitably located egress doors are mandated by regulations.

Mostly, the dangers of ammonia as a refrigerant are over hyped by the over zealous and it is very safe 99.995% of the time. But that .005% requires experienced personnel to fix….so household air conditioning or grocery store or beer cooler refrigeration use, possible full time occupancy by families with potential mobility issues or maybe Saturday mechanic repair jobs are not a good applications for ammonia refrigeration. Basically the same safety concept as required for steam boilers….

Bob

December 23, 2023 1:28 pm

“Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.”

This pretty much says it all. Ford UK flat out admits their product can’t compete unless the Uk eliminates the competition, gives subsidies forever even with the compition gone and promise to do it forever just for reassurance. These people are pitiful.

dk_

December 23, 2023 1:37 pm

Even a low resolution look at oil or coal prices over the past century reveals market manipulation. What we’re seeing could be CCP sandbagging, discouraging competition on the backs of slave labor. Not the first time or only marketplace in which the strategy has been successful. The lithium mining companies (who could care less for the actual miners) are optimistic because they’re in a position alot like Saudi Arabia’s in 1972.

Look for cheap (below cost) Chinese made cars to start coming into the U.S. from Mexico under the updated NAFTA and Biden IRA. If it happens, watch what happens to U.S. EV manufacturers. Cheap batteries today may be part of that move.

If you’re a bulk buyer, order future stock of LiFePo at today’s prices. Get a good contract. Stocks WILL NOT last.

Be sure that this apparent surplus will be one tool used to justify a ban on exploitation of, or exploration for new lithium reserves in North America and Western Europe.

Gunga Din

December 23, 2023 1:40 pm

“Supply and Demand”
Tough to get around that.
Sure, Governments and Industries have tried to artificially manipulate one side or the other but, if it cost too much OR it doesn’t meet their need, people won’t buy it.

Gregory Woods

December 23, 2023 1:53 pm

No other website that I visit has its panties in a wad about cookies. EU? What do I care about EU regs?

-6

PCman999

Reply to Gregory Woods

December 24, 2023 7:28 am

?????

Almost every single site has annoying cookie pop-ups and the rest I think might not show it because my browser logs me in automatically so the settings for cookies are remembered.

The EU tries to impose it’s will on any site visited by Europeans, and those sites comply to avoid legal issues or possibly the threat of getting blocked by EU internet providers.

Edward Katz

December 23, 2023 2:09 pm

The manufacturers blew it from the outset by pricing EVs too high in the hope that government subsidies would entice consumers to buy anyway. Except those subsidies really didn’t lower the price where they were in line with gas/diesel types, and now that those buyers who wanted EVs have bought them, the rest are realizing these vehicles really aren’t worth it, particularly when they’ll have little effect on reducing emissions. In addition, now that there’s a reliability problem that’s come to light with EVs, we should expect sales to stagnate further regardless of the lithium cost or supply.

PCman999

Reply to Edward Katz

December 24, 2023 7:37 am

“The manufacturers blew it from the outset by pricing EVs too high…”

????

They are priced high because they are expensive to make!!!

Even with the genius level of manufacturing innovation going on at Tesla, the battle to costs comes up hard against the stone wall of battery chemical and material science.

Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 2:12 pm

 “consumer enthusiasm for electric cars has recently lost some of its charge” Erc, Worrall

This is false and the complete opposite of the truth based on EV sakes data for 2023 

Mr, Worrall, I consider you to be the a very good reporter writing for this website, but it’s time to STOP repeating the conservative myth that EV sales are failing or even falling.

EV sales are booming at rates I find hard to believe. I have recommended hundreds of articles critical of EVs on my blog, and would never want one.

But that’s not what the data say:

In the US, 2023 BEV sales will be up about 60% from 2022 while ICE sales are up 1% to 2%

Global EV sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), should reach 14.1 million units in 2023, up 34% compared with 2022.

EV pickup trucks are not selling well because batteries are best for small, light cars, not big heavy pickup trucks that may have to carry heavy loads.

Tesla had the second highest profit margin in the global auto industry in 2022 at 18%, second only to Ferrari

According to the registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), the total number of battery electric car (BEV) registrations during the first nine months of 2023 amounted to 852,904, which is about 61 percent more than a year ago and about 7.4 percent of the total market (up from 5.2 percent at this same time in 2022)
.
BEV registrations (select brands) in January-September 2023:

Tesla: 489,454 (up 41%)

Chevrolet: 50,160 (up 133%) and 5.9% share

Ford: 46,547 (up 22%) and 5.5% share

Hyundai: 40,612 and 4.8% share

BMW: 31,209 (“more than quadrupled”) and 3.7% share

Rivian: 30,240 (“more than tripled”) and 3.5% share

Mercedes-Benz: 27,484 and 3.2% share

Volkswagen: 27,001 (up 145%) and 3.2% share

Kia: 23,304 and 2.7% share

Audi: 17,229 and 2.0% share

-10

observa

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 2:51 pm

Yeah yeah it’s all a bed of roses with ICE production subsidising EV loss making trying to match Tesla.

It’s the Ultiumate-
The Chevy Blazer EV Isn’t Alone. GM Owners Say The Ultium Cars Are A Hot Mess (msn.com)
The usual overenthusiastic gold rush runs out of grubstake money-
EV Startups Are Finally Running Out Of Cash (msn.com)
While Gummints run out of slushfunds for middle class welfare-
Germany ends electric-car subsidies, France excludes Chinese-made cars from its rebates – Drive
The industry has to solve the incendiary lithium battery problem and painful refuelling times or it will run out of social licence (insurability most likely)-
Zeekr’s ‘Golden Battery’ Is The Latest Revelation In EV Battery Tech (msn.com)

Trying to Play Nice

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 4:54 pm

I think you’ve stated in the past that you are from Michigan. You must not be from the auto industry. Those volumes are nowhere near the levels needed to operate with a profit. The number used to be 150,000 minimum in one plant with some single line plants making 500,000 or more units a year. When you are talking different models built within the same assembly plant then you can have low volumes for the higher priced models. BEVs and ICEVs cannot easily be built in the same plant because the assembly process is quite different.

Unless you expect 60% growth rates to continue (I’ve got a bridge I could sell you) there will be a shakeout or consolidation soon. Tesla has been the market leader and is trying to keep it’s volume by slashing prices. They have built new plants so they have to keep them running to pay fixed costs and keep their product plans moving even if they lose a little money on each unit.

Richard Greene

Reply to Trying to Play Nice

December 24, 2023 3:44 am

I live in SE Michigan and worked in Ford product development for 27 years

EV sales are booming in 2023
But not for Ford

Tesla is booming with high profit margins in 2022 that allowed them to cut prices in 2023

The Big Three were going to start beating up Tesla in 2023 but failed.

An assembly plant will have multiple assembly lines and could manufacture an ICE and EV in the same building.

Ford’s EV Lightening is built in an assembly plant adjacent to their Dearborn Truck ICE assembly plant.

The Dearborn Truck Plant is capable of interchanging three vehicle platforms, producing nine different models in the same facility. It has the ability to easily absorb other vehicles into the plant. Assembly lines can be configured to accommodate front-wheel-drive, rear-wheel-drive, unitized body and body-on-frame vehicles.

-3

Drake

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 11:25 am

” Assembly lines can be configured to accommodate front-wheel-drive, rear-wheel-drive, unitized body and body-on-frame vehicles.”

And the change from one configuration to another will not take the line off production for weeks or cost any other expenses, right??

Just because a line CAN do whatever, doesn’t change what Playing Nice said, which is probably true.

Bryan A

Reply to Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 7:11 pm

TRUCK Brand-Q3-23/Q3-22///YTD-23-/YTD-22
FORD F-SERIES-186,974/161,498///561,110/458,547
CHEVY SILVERADO-143,467/117,198///411,758/381,337
RAM PICKUP-109,391/118,106///332,440/363,089
GMC SIERRA-73,219/50,169//!216,227/169,107

Ford F series Trucks Q1-Q2-Q3 sales 571,110 (2023) 458,547 (2022)
Nothing beats a FORD

Richard Greene

Reply to Bryan A

December 24, 2023 3:51 am

The Tesla Y is the second best selling US vehicle of 2023

Tesla Model Y is #2 US Bestseller in 2023 through Q3, Behind Perennial #1 Ford F-150, and Ahead of Toyota RAV4 | Wolf Street

Ford and GM can not survive without the profits from sales of ICE pickup trucks and large SUVs — the worst vehicles for use of batteries (which are best for tiny cars that do not carry heavy loads).

-3

Bryan A

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 8:25 am

And they don’t seem to be having any trouble making those sales either

Scissor

Reply to Bryan A

December 24, 2023 11:22 am

YoY, Tesla’s revenue is up 9%, but earnings are down 44% and net operating income is down 52% with operating margin in the single digits. Their price cuts, while maintaining sales volume have hurt profitability.

Fisker on the other hand is heading for a second (final?) bankruptcy.

Dave Andrews

Reply to Richard Greene

December 24, 2023 7:02 am

90% of all EV sales have come from China,US and Europe. ROW 10%. In some countries, like Japan, sales have stagnated for several years.

Richard Greene

December 23, 2023 2:28 pm

Lithium prices are determined by supply and demand

The priduction will rise with a oercentage similar to global EV sakes in the 30% to 40% growth range in 2023 and expected in 2-24

The lithium price went up a lot in late 2021 and 2022 because the supply was not keeping up with demand.

New lithium supplies caused the price of lithium to crash in 2023.

The wild variations of the lithium price from 2021 through 2023 have NOTHING do to with weak EV sales because EV sales are NOT weak, they are strong.

-11

RickWill

December 23, 2023 2:45 pm

Imagine that scaled up million times, and you get the idea of why I’m going to let someone else drive the first supercapacitor EVs.

Mazda’s ELOOP regenerative system uses supercapacitors. They started these in 2013. I do not know if they are still using supercapacitors.

Some of the F1 KERS are based on supercapacitors.

Supercapacitors have a power to weight advantage over lithium batteries and no inherent cycle life limit.

Supercapaciors still need protection but they do not have any volatile liquids like lithium batteries. Lithium batteries can produce more energy than the electrical energy stored so are a “fuel” source as well as energy store. Supercapacitors have lower fire potential but they can still make a big bang.

-2

Kit P

December 23, 2023 3:15 pm

I am a practical engineer knows who physics and chemistry. Storing large amounts of electricity is a bad idea but we have a handle on small mounts.

I own 11 lead acid batteries. One stores enough energy to start my ICE car with a 12 gallon fuel tank.

Two start my Cummins diesel with a 60 gallon fuel tank. Four golf cart batteries store enough electricity for a day of use in my motor home.

Two are on my sail boat to start the engine and power gear when the engine is off.

The point is that old technology gets the job done for small amounts.

So what is the best way to store very large amounts of electricity? Enriched U235 will store 2 years worth of power to run .a 1600 MWe power plant.

Joseph Zorzin

December 23, 2023 4:05 pm

“But the politicians have been slow to inflict promised EV mandates on voters…”

They’ve done it in some states- locked into law.

Ian_e

Reply to Joseph Zorzin

December 24, 2023 5:51 am

And will start in a week’s time in the UK. Popcorn time over here whilst we watch to see who blinks first.

Joseph Zorzin

Reply to Ian_e

December 24, 2023 6:34 am

I think I’ll write to Gov. Healey, saying, “I’m a low income retiree- but I want to participate in saving the Earth- but can’t afford an EV- so if you give me one- I’ll be happy to help save the planet”.