Whatever happened to the Siberian permafrost “tipping point” from 2005?

It seems like yet another climate doomsday prediction has failed to materialize.

In August of 2005, the ever-alarmed Guardian posted this scare story:

Warming hits ‘tipping point’

Siberia feels the heat It’s a frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined, contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas and, for the first time since the ice age, it is melting.

“If we don’t take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide,” he said. “There’s still time to take action, but not much.

The article continues with:

Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres – the size of France and Germany combined – has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.

It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying “tipping points” – delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth’s temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.

The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today.

The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometre across.

Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an “ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming”. He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years.

Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards.

“When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it’s unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply,” said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

Three things in the article are important to note:

  1. As indicated by this PowerPoint presentation, the researcher Kirpotin visited in the summer, not the winter We have no weather records back to 11,000 years ago, we don’t know if such an event occurred in the summers of past millennia. But, it is reasonable to assume that given the propensity for that region to have large temperature swings, some melting in the summer is regular event every few years or decades. From Wikipedia, bold mine:

    Verkhoyansk, a town further north and further inland, recorded a temperature of −69.8 °C (−93.6 °F) for three consecutive nights: 5, 6 and 7 February 1933. Each town is alternately considered the Northern Hemisphere’s Pole of Cold – the coldest inhabited point in the Northern hemisphere. Each town also frequently reaches 30 °C (86 °F) in the summer, giving them, and much of the rest of Russian Siberia, the world’s greatest temperature variation between summer’s highs and winter’s lows, often well over 94–100+ °C (169–180+ °F) between the seasons.
  2. They say “…the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years.” This indicates they don’t actually know, but are speculating. Speculation is not science, it is opinion. Further, three or four years is not long enough to establish any sort or climate pattern, which is defined by the World Meteorological Organization as being 30 years:

    Climate is the average weather conditions for a particular location over a long period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. WMO uses a 30-year period to determine the average climate.
  3. The final quote in the excerpt above is from Dr. David Viner who famously (and wildly erroneously) said in 2000. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” and winter snowfall “would become “a very rare and exciting event.” Given his poor track record, and the lack of any loss of snow in the northern hemisphere, take his opinion about permafrost with a grain of salt.

If we believe The Guardian story and those climate scientists in 2005, the whole area in Siberia must be a warm soupy mess by now, right?


That extended warming and melting just isn’t happening. While the researchers sounded alarm over a warm summer in Siberia in 2005, this past year has been completely the opposite. For example, this Washington Post Story from Jan 10, 2023: Siberia sees coldest air in two decades as temperature dips to minus-80

Or how about the story we covered on WUWT just a few days ago: Russia Reels From -60°C Cold Blast… And Munich Breaks December Snow Record

It must be tough to keep that permafrost at a melting tipping point with winter temperatures like that. Here is the view of the region today, note the widespread below zero temperatures:

You can be certain that any permafrost that “melted” during the summer is now refrozen and the tipping point aka “methane monster” is still in slumber.

Yes, in fact, the predicted tipping point from 2005 hasn’t happened at all, but undeterred, in 2022 climate science has pushed the goalposts out further, because it will happen, any day now.

Permafrost peatlands approach a climate tipping point
Permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia are much closer to a climatic tipping point than previously thought, according to a new study led by the University of Leeds. Scientists estimate that, even with the strongest efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions and therefore limit climate change, by 2040 the climates of Northern Europe will no longer be cold and dry enough to sustain peat permafrost.

If I’m still alive in 2040, I’ll write about it then. But my guess (or speculation if you like) based on the history so far is that the permafrost will still be there in Siberia, no catastrophic tipping point will have occurred, and the doomsday goalposts will have been pushed to 2060 and beyond.

For more failed climate predictions, please visit our Failed Climate Predictions Timeline feature.

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Tom Halla
December 21, 2023 2:14 pm

I cannot be writing this, as I died in a smog emergency in 1973. Or was it a famine the year earlier?

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Halla
December 21, 2023 2:24 pm

Perhaps it was the great Smurf Reboot of 1981

Edward Katz
December 21, 2023 2:15 pm

Check the temperatures for the last few weeks in Irkutsk, Russia and Harbin, China plus the surrounding areas in Siberia and Manchuria and if there are any signs of warmer winters, they’re the best kept secret since the Manhattan Project. Naturally a rag like The Guardian and its alarmist partner the BBC would try to get as much mileage as possible out of any departure from normal temperatures, particularly if they are warmer; but that’s why these two news sources have lost so much credibility in recent years.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Edward Katz
December 21, 2023 3:03 pm

I have been reading warmunist explanations for this almost unprecedented cold in a supposedly warming world. They say global warming caused a weakening of the circumpolar vortex, which caused very cold air to descend to lower latitudes. Or something like that.
Same basic meridional versus zonal jet stream climate change explanation as for unusually wet California when it was supposed to be in permadrought,

The alarmists need to up their game. They confuse weather with climate. They think computer model output is ‘data’. And they never admit they have been wrong so many times. SLR did not accelerate (Hansen). Summer Arctic sea ice did not disappear (Wadhams). Glacier National Park still has glaciers (USNPS). UK children still know snow (Viner).

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 21, 2023 10:48 pm

The alarmists have no game other than lies backed by the government and their media.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  rah
December 22, 2023 3:03 am

I wonder if any of the better known alarmists have ever changed their minds?

Richard Page
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 22, 2023 6:00 am

Not in public, it wouldn’t be decent.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Richard Page
December 22, 2023 6:38 am

They would be shunned.

Reply to  Richard Page
December 22, 2023 12:47 pm

I think I saw what you did there.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 22, 2023 6:16 am

What? And give up the flow of cash? Don’t think so.

Reply to  rah
December 22, 2023 4:18 pm

Imagine a world without other sources of news.

Reply to  KevinM
December 23, 2023 8:48 am

Exactly the world the left is trying to impose on us.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 22, 2023 12:33 pm

As a single data point, parts of Southern California received record rainfall yesterday, with 3 inches measured at LAX, and 6 inches reported for Oxnard. No drought at this time.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 22, 2023 2:17 pm

“found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres – the size of France and Germany combined – has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.”

The team of alarmist ‘researchers’ must be sociologists and and social psychologists who were dispatched to study the permafrost deathspiral. It didn’t form 11,000yrs ago doughheads, it froze up 100,000yrs ago. A lot of it thawed during the Holocene highstand when it was about 3°C+ warmer than today for 4-5 millennia.

Also, the previous Eemian warm period before the Holocene was a couple of degrees warmer than the Holocene highstand. Ya see, during this previous much warmer period, most of the methane you worry about escaped before the permafrost froze up again 110,000 years ago. I hope this helps.

John in Oz
Reply to  Gary Pearse
December 22, 2023 3:27 pm

If if the permafrost formed 11,000 years ago, as they believe, they need to explain why the tipping point they espouse did not occur prior to this time when all of the gases now locked in the permafrost were out and about and able to wreak havoc around the World.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
December 22, 2023 4:26 pm

A lesson for those who lecture new earth creationists about what millions of years means – if something keeps returning to habitable conditions for millions of years then that’s probably just how it’ works. I think the concept moon expression for the situation is “can’t have it both ways”.

David Wojick
December 21, 2023 2:15 pm

Cold in Siberia? Who knew?

Rud Istvan
Reply to  David Wojick
December 21, 2023 3:04 pm

Well, today is the winter solstice. It does warm in Siberia in summer.

December 21, 2023 2:21 pm

It is time to reevaluate how we do science. We are not getting our money’s worth.

Richard Page
Reply to  Bob
December 21, 2023 11:00 pm

When you give someone a blank cheque to investigate anything they fancy, you’re not going to get much of any use. Once upon a time scientists pushed the boundaries of human knowledge further and further; now they seem to be pushing the boundaries of what they can get away with.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Richard Page
December 22, 2023 3:06 am

Especially when the UN’s objective is to prove that there is an emergency.

Reply to  Richard Page
December 22, 2023 6:18 am

Funny how much of the ‘settled science’ needs further research – keep the cheques coming.

Reply to  Bob
December 21, 2023 11:05 pm

We are not getting our money’s worth.

Someone is

Reply to  Bob
December 22, 2023 4:36 pm

A few generations back people decided the world was factual, predictable, materialistic and could be understood with data. Individuals going back to famous Greek philosophers wrote ideas that way but Western history does not support a broadly existential philosophy until relatively recent times. To get there we’ve had to sweep certain ideas under a rug and not talk about them.

Reply to  KevinM
December 22, 2023 4:38 pm

Like if Thanatos is going to eradicate half of all living things, then who gets eradicated and why?

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Bob
December 23, 2023 7:58 am

Sure we are, you just misunderstand what we are paying for

Bryan A
December 21, 2023 2:21 pm


Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres – the size of France and Germany combined – has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age

How do they know the permafrost formed 11,000 years ago? Makes it sound like it didn’t exist prior to then, like the Holocene Climate Optimum was to warm to allow for permafrost to exist.
Before 17,000 years ago it wasn’t warm, it was the depth of the last great 100,000 year long glaciation cycle. Seems to me that would have been cold enough to create any permafrost ground…120,000 years ago, after the prior interglacial warm period. Perhaps it really isn’t warmer now than it was during the Holocene Climate Optimum

Reply to  Bryan A
December 21, 2023 2:44 pm

Formed during the Holocene Optimum up until MWP or RWP

Frozen during the LIA period.

Massive peat beds, means good solid plant growth over a prolonged period of time..

How much warmer must it have been !!!

December 21, 2023 2:40 pm

Peat cannot have formed if there was permafrost.

It MUST have been quite a bit warmer when the peat formed.

So it certain didn’t form during the ice age before the Holocene Optimum

Reply to  bnice2000
December 21, 2023 11:46 pm

The Great Permafrost Scare, like all AGW idiocy, simply implodes when examined logically.

Reply to  Graemethecat
December 22, 2023 12:46 am

AGW apostles are INCAPABLE of thinking logically !

Rud Istvan
December 21, 2023 2:45 pm

There are three interesting falsehoods related to the general tundra methane alarm not reflected in AW’s excellent permafrost melting debunking:

  1. The original methane bubbling from shallow ocean covered Arctic permafrost in Russia alarm papers was based on a false geological assumption. Turns out those shallow Arctic Ocean methane seeps were from abundant but shallow Siberian natural gas deposits, partly capped by permafrost— which partly melted after Arctic sea water rose to cover them at the beginning of the Holocene. Nothing to do with permafrost methane per se. (As an aside, the GoM methane clathrates also form from natural seepage from the underlying natural gas reservoirs formed geologically.) See essay ‘Ice that Burns’ in ebook Blowing Smoke for illustrations and details.
  2. Some years ago (I have the study archived somewhere on my hard drive) a Canadian researcher went to the trouble to enclose a number of Canadian Arctic permafrost experimental sections in ‘airtight’ transparent plastic enclosures. Her idea was to experimentally determine the summer permafrost melt methane release quantities for her climate PhD. To her surprise, over the course of an Artic summer the answer was zero. The naturally occurring permafrost methanotrophs multiplied as the permafrost melted, and consumed their favorite food source until things froze over again. Zip, nada methane release from melting permafrost thanks to basic biology.
  3. Methane is a GHG in the lab when measured in a standard dry atmosphere. It is NOT a GHG in the real world having an average about 2% specific humidity. Anybody capable of using the public version of MODTRAN can verify this for themselves. The methane IR absorption bands are almost completely overlapped by those of much more abundant water vapor. The whole methane GHG alarm is based on bogus lab v. real world physics.
Richard Page
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 21, 2023 11:38 pm

4. The paper should never have passed peer review. All these ‘scientists’ have done is rediscovered that permafrost has an ‘active layer’ at the surface that thaws and refreezes with the seasons. It’s been known about for a long time and even wikipedia has a section on it – why these muppets didn’t do some basic research is mystifying but they haven’t found out anything new except how to get grant money for doing virtually nothing.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 21, 2023 11:53 pm

Points 2 and 3 destroy the permafrost fantasy and point 3 alone destroys the climate armageddon caused cattle’s emission scam.

Point 2 : has anyone noticed that the absorption of methane by soils, when searched with google gives now more first results of soils methane emission than absorption ? I did the search some months ago and immediately found results for actual absorption mecanisms (which is known since decades in biology) and now the results are somewhat “biased” towards emission … ?

joe x
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 22, 2023 4:34 am

rud, you are making way to much sence.
try and tone it down will ya.

DD More
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 22, 2023 4:09 pm

And a possible #4. Hydrate breakdown is an endothermic process, absorbing heat while the surrounding sediment cools. Because the specific heat of methane hydrates is about half that of water, hydrate-bearing sediment stores less heat which can then be made available to help fuel dissociation

It has to be continually heated to melt.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 23, 2023 8:09 am

Rud, very interested in point #2, if you can dig that up I would use it to great effect. Maybe can be sent to me via Charles. The nonsensical methane scare is more than annoying as it powers the latest attack by the Trudeau idiots on us in AB.
I have no problem with measured enactment of rules to reduce gas flaring from oil production, gathering and using it makes sense, but these clowns are using the methane scare to claim that tiny fugitive emissions from existing gathering infrastructure will kill us all thereby requiring shutting in the whole industry.
They succeeded in demonizing coal to help force conversion to gas, now they are focusing on gas and how methane is supposedly worse.
#3 puts paid to that nonsense as well, Happer has nice graphs on that.

December 21, 2023 3:06 pm

They’ve been digging Woolly Mammoths out of these areas for decades, every summer.

John Hultquist
Reply to  cuddywhiffer
December 21, 2023 3:43 pm

At least one was thawed and the meat sampled.

Bryan A
Reply to  John Hultquist
December 21, 2023 5:36 pm

Tasted like Курица

general custer
December 21, 2023 3:14 pm

It was accepted for years and probably still is that permafrost forms when the average annual temperature is 28F or below. Any place in North America that has permafrost gets warm enough in the summer to melt the surface. This is the “active layer”, which varies in depth but freezes back to the surface in winter cold returns. The total permafrost depth varies but depends on a number of factors. The permafrost at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska extends to about 1600 feet below the surface. The Yukon Valley didn’t undergo continental glaciation during the last ice age but does have discontinuous permafrost depending on local conditions. The melting of permafrost bluffs along the Yukon and its tributaries exposes frozen mammoth carcasses, not fossils, that appear to have died in a kind of catastrophe because some have undigested food in their stomachs.

John Hultquist
December 21, 2023 3:31 pm

I’d like an update in 7 to 10 years — not 2040.
If I’m still here in 2040, likely I’ll not give a schist
what the Guardian prints.
Wait! I don’t now.

Reply to  John Hultquist
December 21, 2023 11:41 pm

I doubt The Guardian will still be around in 2040.

Reply to  Graemethecat
December 22, 2023 4:25 am

Oh my goodness. Another consequence of the climate crisis/emergency/breakdown?

John Hultquist
December 21, 2023 3:40 pm


Best if you read it and then I don’t have to worry about big words.

“The hydrosere: a continuum of vegetation types that replace each other as habitat succession proceeds from an initial phase (open water or other) to bog in response to changes in water depth, trophic status and plant communities.

One photo on this page. Hit the “Go Back” button.

Peta of Newark
Reply to  John Hultquist
December 21, 2023 4:16 pm

The picture is what I would call, UK based, a ‘carr’
See that word on signposts, placenames and people-names all over England

Carr = a bog/mire/moor with trees growing out of it, often Willow, Birch or Alnus and others that love water and very often, fix their own Nitrogen.

Alnus esp can be very very quick growing and will effectively drain the swamp.
Give Willow unlimited water and it skyrockets. While being ‘pendulous’, Willows are enigmatic.

The sure sign of ‘Global haha Warming’ will be if that is happening.
i.e. If an expanse of rushes/reshes and coarse grasses have trees growing in them.

That is what we wanted/needed to know from those muppets that visited Siberia
It means that the swamp is losing water faster than it refills.
As ponds and puddles in the mire disappear below surface and as water controls climate, the climate there will ‘warm’

Oddly enough it’s exactly that which triggered the Acid Rain Panic/Scare, where UK coal-fired stations were supposedly destroying forests in Scandavia.

They were doing no such thing, the coal stations were fertilising the Scandavian Forest.

But why the Scandavians were piling crushed limestone into their rivers and lakes was because they themselves were draining the (highly acidic) water from their own peatbogs/swamps in order to make ‘ Man Made Carrs’ = to grow trees.

So again, another thing the muppets should have measured = the pH of any running water, streams and lakes they found.
That would have told very accurately if the peatbog was melting

Richard Page
Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 21, 2023 5:38 pm

Except that ‘carr’s’ have a natural process where they cycle from wetland, to bog, more solid ground with trees and bushes which can then go back to bog then wetland. When I was studying the ecology some 40 years ago we referred to it as a ‘moss’.

Reply to  Richard Page
December 21, 2023 10:22 pm

Most enjoyable reads. I live in North Shropshire surrounded by reclaimed mosses. The Shropshire Lake District. Top end of the village is called “Marsh”. Yesterday I walked over Whixall Moss. The fields surrounding me are regularly flooded and have lots of drainage ditches. Where they are arable the soil is a deep black peat. Most of the fields are used for livestock though as they are too wet. I can hear sheep as I type. The last two months has been very wet and there is a lot of standing water in the lower fields. And a lot of willow and alder. Off to walk the Montgomery canal soon across the Perry viaduct across the reclaimed mossland.
And mention of verkoyansk takes me back to my geography teacher in the 80s telling us about it when we complained he classroom was cold. “A warm day in verkoyansk…” and we’d groan.

December 21, 2023 6:34 pm

“Tipping points?” A fake concept invented by a Merkel political advisor Hans Schnellnhuber. The natural world tends towards a means, not an extreme polarization in one direction or another. Essentially anything uttered or written by that liar can be disregarded as having no foundation in science.

Equally anything uttered or written by Dr. David Viner can be disregarded as well. That ass blew his credibility when he predicted an end to snow.

And who can forget the immortal words of Stephen Schneider justifying lying verbally and in print. “So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.”

And while we are at it, how can we ignore the statement of Phil Jones, “I may have written some pretty awful emails.” Which revealed he was in cahoots with a number of other scientific thugs to deplatform opponents, warp the review processes and editors of various scientific journals and support the concept of Mike’s Nature Trick to Hide the Decline.

As soon as a scientist descends into policy advocacy he or she has lost any claim to pretend to be balanced on a particular issue or anything related to it. In effect, by taking up the cause of partisan politics, they might just as well have burnt their degrees in the fireplace.

Reply to  cgh
December 22, 2023 5:00 pm

““Tipping points?” A fake concept invented by …” someone born before paper existed to write it down.

Izaak Walton
December 21, 2023 8:48 pm

It is interesting that the timescale mentioned in the original article is omitted in the summary. The original article states that:
The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter.”

So whether or not the prediction is true it is still far to early to tell.

Secondly there is no refutation of the claims in the article. The fact that Siberia is cold in
winter is not proof that the permafrost isn’t melting. And while “You can be certain that any permafrost that “melted” during the summer is now refrozen” that is in fact proof
that the permafrost is no longer permanent and thus not permafrost. From wikipedia:
Permafrost  is soil or underwater sediment which continuously remains below 0 °C (32 °F) for two years or more” so if it melts in summer it isn’t permafrost. Soil that freezes in winter and thaws in summer is not permafrost.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
December 21, 2023 10:19 pm

It doesn’t matter because there is no tipping point anyway which is a pile of political crap.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
December 21, 2023 10:47 pm

It is absolutely certain that the peat didn’t grow while bound in permafrost !

It must have been substantially warmer when all that peat, deep layers of it, was deposited.

Or are you one of those clowns that thinks trees can grow under glaciers ?

Richard Page
Reply to  Izaak Walton
December 21, 2023 11:12 pm

Sorry Izaak but that is complete BS. Permafrost varies in thickness from a metre or two to over a kilometre in depth, which means that, even if the top few metres thaw, it is still frozen beneath that – the thaw/refreeze depth is referred to as the ‘active layer’ and does not invalidate the status of permafrost in any way. Soil that freezes in winter and thaws in summer is still permafrost.

Bryan A
Reply to  Izaak Walton
December 22, 2023 5:24 am

How much warmer would it need to be…warmer than it is today…and for how long to grow the peat to the depth it is before it was cold enough to become permafrost?

12,000-10,000 years ago it HAD to be warmer than it is today or there would be no peat there today to be frozen 10,000 years ago and thawing

Peta of Newark
December 21, 2023 9:04 pm

The more you think about this one, the worse it gets
For everybody in this entire climate trainwreck. Everybody, most of present company included.

Soil erosion.
Because what has happened to create the permafrost (the frozen peatbog) was a process = the exact opposite of soil erosion.
i.e. The accumulation/accretion of organic material with the top layer of soil on Earth’s surface.

Properly, that layer of dark coloured highly organic ‘stuff’ is called ‘The A Horizon‘ but otherwise referred to as ‘Topsoil
There are innumerable times around here when anyone (me esp) has raved about putting or burying organic stuff into the ground as a way of ‘capturing Carbon’, (also ‘Organic Farming’) the cry has always gone up:
Oh you stupid unscientific tree-hugging know-nothings, everything you bury will be turned back into CO₂ in no time at all. Burying stuff is never gonna do anything they will say.

What is so gobsmacking there and simply leaves you speechless is that these are the very same people who are convinced that there’s a near infinite supply of fossil fuel under the ground.
Where do you begin to address such blindness.
After that is the ever so tiny matter of ‘land based life on Earth
Earth would have started as a lump of bare*barren rock and dust so, apart from the fossil fuels, how did everything else around us get here?
You know what I mean, that ‘stuff’ that the Global Greening Sputnik saw.

Permafrost, Katabatic heating, deserts and why The Science is such shit
The production of topsoil is a slow process. To start with barren/infertile subsoil and make it into Topsoil requires about 100 years per inch of topsoil created. Under perfect conditions.
That would have applied at the times of The Dinosaurs and also prior to that when fossil fuels were being created
Not any more.

The very best places making topsoil nowadays will be under the jungles/forests of SE Asia where ‘Ring of Fire’ volcanoes have provided the necessary soil fertility.
No, NOT CO₂. Just boring old basalt and granite.

Where it now gets insane is that THE best place making topsoil at the moment anywhere on Planet Earth is the grouse moors of Scotland.
Cold, wild wet uninhabitable peatbogs.
haha: So much for your idyllic Mediterranean Climate and all the imagined loveliness of a ‘warming climate’
Topsoil is being created under the moors of Scotland at about 1 inch every 160 years.

And that would be happening under the peatbogs of Siberia, if they weren’t frozen.
Now you see why The Science is such garbage. If the permafrost melted, it would come alive an (re) start absorbing CO₂ at a truly immense rate.
It would be absorbing GHGs – NOT releasing them.

So, why are the Siberian bogs frozen?
Simple, Because ‘somebody’ created an immense desert to the south of them
That desert will endure very hot dry summers with no rain but also very cold dry winters exactly because of katabatic heating
i.e. All the solar energy during summer was effectively reflected back into space and there was no rain to absorb heat and store it in the ground.

For the peatbogs to the north they would have had a relentless flow of dense dry air flowing over them as that air poured out from the cyclonic ridge that installed itself over the desert every year.
Again= no rain for the peatbog
Because rain would have melted the permafrost and brought the bog back to life.

and so, the bog would have gradually cooled and cooled and cooled over the centuries until it became completely frozen.
As as happened and all because of the desert to the south – as patently does not apply to the grouse moors of Scotland.

Thank you intrepid little humans for making that desert, thank you so very much.

Are we any closer to understanding how Soil Erosion creates Ice Ages and why continent sized summer-long resistant ridges (aka The Mediterranean Climate) are THE Worst Possible News for all of Life on Earth……
And that what thermometers are measuring in ‘rising temps’ are those resistant ridges in action, creating katabatic heating and doing the exact opposite to ‘trapping heat’

December 21, 2023 10:16 pm

Permafrost used to be down south as far as 42-45 degrees North during the Glaciation time which means southern France was the boundary line and middle America was the boundary line which then melted back over 1,000 to around 1500 miles to the north without any evidence of a …. “tipping point” having occurred.

These hack scientists are incompetent.

December 21, 2023 10:46 pm

“Whatever happened to the Siberian permafrost “tipping point” from 2005?”
Same thing that happened to:
The Madives will be underwater due to SLR!
The GBR is 1/2 dead!
Ski resorts will go out of business due to lack of snow!
The permadrought of the SW US.
Arctic to be ice free during the summer.
etc…etc..etc.. ad nauseum.

Bryan A
Reply to  rah
December 22, 2023 2:26 pm

I heard all the winter Sno-Cone sellers in Central Park relocated to Buffalo where the Lake Effect still provides them with flurries of business

Coeur de Lion
December 22, 2023 12:35 am

Did I notice the name of Dr No Snow Viner? Ouch one of my grandchildren hit me with a snowball.

Bryan A
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
December 22, 2023 2:32 pm

Some people, because of the ancestry of their sir name, pronounce “W” as “V” and “V” as “W”
Others have purposefully chanced their spelling to remove that misscue. Like Wagner being pronounced Wagner or like the German Vagner.
Is the “V” in Viner “V” like Vine or “W” like Wine?

December 22, 2023 1:44 am

“Whatever happened to the Siberian permafrost “tipping point” from 2005?”

It tipped into Colorado, I think. I keep reading more stories like this. Granted, it was one year ago…


Joseph Zorzin
December 22, 2023 3:01 am

“If we don’t take action very soon, we could

Stopped there- anytime I see “could”.

December 22, 2023 4:10 am

Permafrost peatlands? If they are frozen peatlands then that indicates they began as peatlands so what conditions are required for peatlands to even exist? – Constant sub-zero temperatures with a land encased in permanent ice?

Richard Page
Reply to  sskinner
December 22, 2023 6:07 am

Siberia never had ice sheets, at least not in the last few glaciations. Judging by the mammoth remains, it probably went through semi-regular seasonal thaw/refreeze periods throughout the last glaciation at least.

December 22, 2023 8:54 am

Melting takes a long time . . . based on the ratio of interglacial interval to glacial interval averaging at about 30,000 years:70,000 years for the last nine such cycles, we have another 20,000 or so years of melting still to go.

The Guardian, in it’s article referenced above, was “just a little” off in its timing.

December 22, 2023 12:45 pm

“Science correspondent, Ian SIMPLE, was it?

December 22, 2023 4:14 pm

“for the first time since the ice age, …” it’s the first time since the ice age that I wrote this comment.

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