Is it possible to simplify the climate sensitivity debate?
Category: Climate sensitivity
Hansen’s latest overheated global warming claims are based on poor science
…he leads are increasingly strongly biased towards overheated projections and dire conclusions.
Spencer and Christy’s new climate sensitivity paper has been published – and its LOWER.
From Dr. Roy Spencer: If we assume ALL *observed* warming of the deep oceans and land since 1970 has been due to humans, we get an effective climate sensitivity to…
An Unsettling Insight
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the classical way to measure the very poorly-named “greenhouse effect”, which has nothing to do with greenhouses. To my knowledge,…
More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt
By Andy May The argument about the proper way to estimate error in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 weather reanalysis dataset between Nicola Scafetta and Gavin…
How Much Warming Can We Expect in the 21st Century?
Assuming that the climate sensitivity from Lewis22 is correct and that RCP3.4 is the most appropriate emissions scenario, then we find that global temperatures will rise by less than 1°C…
The Elephants in The Room
On that assumption, each $1 billion spent on abatement would prevent less than 1/10,000,000 C:
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity?
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W/m2 from year-to-year, according…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is arguably the most important number in the…
The error of the mean: a dispute between Gavin Schmidt and Nicola Scafetta
By Andy May You can read this post in German here, courtesy of Christian Freuer. Here we go again, writing on the proper use of statistics in climate science. Traditionally,…
Sunshine and Temperature in Holland
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, the endless curiosity of my monkey-mind led me to some interesting datasets over at KNMI. They’re a variety of meteorological measurements made in Holland…
Equilibrium Doubled-CO2 Sensitivity by Observational Methods
On that basis, each $1 billion that Britain and the world spends on chasing after net zero will prevent just one thirty-millionth of a degree of warming that would otherwise…
Climate Sensitivity from 1970-2021 Warming Estimates
.. the observational data suggest lower climate sensitivities (ECS) than promoted by the IPCC with a central estimate of +2.09 deg C. for the global average. This is at the…
Transient Climate Response from Observations 1979-2022
The best estimate of TCR based on CMIP6 models (the red line in Fig.1) is 1.6K / 2*CO2, following the cited paper.
Scatterplot Sensitivity
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This is the third post looking at the use of 1° latitude by 1° longitude gridcell-based scatterplots. The first post, Global Scatterplots, looked at a…
Solar Sensitivity
Once the average available solar power is above 310W/m2, you can add up to an additional 50 W/m2 without increasing the surface temperature one bit.
Important New Paper Challenges IPCC’s Claims about Climate Sensitivity
Official IPCC estimates of future global warming may be overstated
A More Accurate Multiplier
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my previous posts, yclept “Greenhouse Efficiency” and “The Multiplier”, I described a metric I’d developed to look at how successful the very poorly named…
A Serious Question
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Apparently I must be a glutton for punishment, because here I am in the arena once again, discussing the results of my research and preparing…
The Multiplier
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This is a follow-on from my previous post entitled Greenhouse Equilibrium. If you haven’t read it, you might want to, as it introduces many of…
Greenhouse Efficiency
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Buoyed by equal parts of derision and praise for my last post, “Surface Radiation: Absorption And Emission“, I once again venture into the arena. I…
